Fundamentals:US Economy in Crisis: Where is it Headed?

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Context

Profits at their source come from human labor, which in the process of work creates value in what is produced and surplus value in what is produced above what is paid to workers in wages and salaries. 

The capitalist keeps the surplus value---in the process of selling the commodity values produced by the worker at a profit.  To the capitalist business owner this is a part of the business of doing business.  When it all is said and done, people who produce must be able to buy back what they create in order to produce profits for a business which must sell its commodities.  That is why every economic system has sectors for production, distribution, exchange, consumption and reproduction.  If workers have no jobs, they have no wages or salary to purchase what has been created.  Nothing bought, nothing sold: the company goes bankrupt. The cars, trucks, computers, tables, chairs, house, shoes, hats, food sit idle, unsold and unbought.  No sale of commodity, no profit.  No profit, no business; no business equals plant closings, mass layoffs, mass permanent unemployment, evictions, foreclosures, homelessness, hunger and mass civil strife.  The United States is at the beginning stages of economic collapse and the civil strife/disorganization which comes with millions of permanently jobless people being forced out into the streets without means of livelihood.

Today greater and greater surplus value is extracted from fewer and fewer workers on a global scale. Robots and computer automated machine production has replaced human labor in the production equation.  The worker today is competing with a robot that is not paid wages---so the tendency is for the value of labor power, and hence, the value of human life, to be driven toward zero. Wages are driven down, safety nets are being destroyed, people are being laid off/fired/bought out, health care benefits are cut, retirement cut, schools closed,  homes foreclosed, families evicted, regulatory oversight is being eliminated, tax systems dismantled and rebuilt around new military priorities, and civil and criminal law systems are being transformed in the direction of removing any government responsibility for the welfare of society and its citizens.  In the creation of a world market, national corporations become multinational, multinationals become transnational, and transnational corporations become supranational.

The national state transforms from an imperialist welfare state based on bribery, to a market state based on legal and extralegal violence to protect domestic and supranational capital. Supranational corporations blend into and become part of the national states. The emergence and merging of the economic and political struggles express the technological, then economic, then social, then political class/race/gender/culture/ and generational revolutions taking place in the real world.  

Latest Developments

Seven economic trends show the emerging collapse of USA capitalism.  This will not occur overnight.

  • 1. Oil prices are setting new records at $148 per barrel.
  • 2. Housing prices have dropped 42% during the summer of 2008.
  • 3. Foreclosures have increased by 2.9 million and are headed toward 5 million families being foreclosed by the end of 2008. Another 1.8 million sub-prime mortgages will reset each quarter and borrowers won't be able to refinance as they expected, due to lower home prices and tighter lending standards. Foreclosed homes will further depress housing prices. Indy-mac collapsed---the second largest bank to fail in history. Fannie and Freddie are on their death beds. The stock market is facing collapse.
  • 4. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are two government agencies who created, and remain highly involved in, the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities. They now own or guarantee about $5.4 trillion, or 50%, of all U.S. mortgages, with $189.3 billion in subprime mortgages.
  • 5. The subprime mortgage crisis started because banks and mortgage companies packaged risky loans and resold them on the secondary market, which was created by the legislation that created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This legislation was supposed to help homeownership become more affordable. Find out how a good idea turned into a bad situation.
  • 6. Business credit is drying up. Demand for any type of asset-backed commercial paper has declined to the point that very little has been issued since July. This panic over the value of these commercialized debt obligations led to the financial sector's crisis in July 2007, causing the intervention of the Federal Reserve.
  • 7. Credit card debt is almost $2.4 trillion, while non-revolving credit, like auto loans, is $1.9 trillion. This is equivalent to $43,000 per household.

Consumer credit is increasing as homeowners are no longer able to use their homes as ATM's. As housing values decline, so does the ability to get second mortgages, causing an 8% increase in revolving credit card use.

High oil prices signal to many people the end of cheap oil, which has been the foundation of the fast-growing global economy. As oil becomes more expensive due to lowered capacity, the economy will slow to first a recession, which will then deepen into a Depression.

Lower housing prices and resultant foreclosurescould total $500 billion in losses to banks, hedge funds and other owners of subprime mortgages on the secondary market. Since the amount of losses is really unknown, the extent of the damage is also unknown, potentially triggering a recession or worse.

Business creditis one of the contributing factors, Citigroup and other banks have set up an $80 billion fund to stabilize over $300 billion in subprime loans. The greatest risk comes from the unknown amount of subprimes out there, and exactly how many loans will default when adjustable rate mortgages reset. Other types of debt, including credit card and auto loans, are also sold on the secondary market. The extent of potential losses if these default has not been estimated.

Consumer credit is the main factor is the massive consumer debt will trigger the next depression in 2009. A single economic shock, such as an increase in interest rates, will force those in debt over their heads to lose their homes and go into bankruptcy. Consumers will reduce spending, thus causing a dramatic slowing of the economy.

The $915 billion in credit card debt is a tipping point that will cause a collapse; debts, including the $856 billion current account deficit and the budget deficit.

What Was The Great Depression of 1929: The Great Depression of 1929 was a worldwide depression that lasted for 10 years. Its kickoff in the U.S. economy was "Black Thursday", October 24, 1929, when 12.9 million shares of stock were sold in one day, triple the normal amount. Share prices fell 15 - 20%, causing a stock market crash.

How Bad Was the Great Depression of 1929?: By 1933, the height of the depression, unemployment had risen from 3% to 25% of the nation's workforce. Wages for those who still had jobs fell 42%. GDP was cut in half, from $103 to $55 billion. This was partly because of deflation, where prices fell 10% per year. By 1933, world trade plummeted 65% as measured in dollars and 25% in total number of units.

The Depression caused many farmers to lose their farms; half of home owners lost their homes. At the same time, years of erosion and a drought created the "Dust Bowl" in the Midwest, where no crops could grow. Thousands of these farmers and other unemployed workers traveled to California to find work. Many ended up living as homeless "hobos" or in shantytowns called "Hoovervilles", named after then-President Herbert Hoover.

The great size of the U.S. current account deficit, and the national debt, could possibly trigger an economic panic that would be difficult for monetary policy to affect. No one really knows, since the current U.S. debt level is unprecedented.   

When the depression matures, Unemployment will rise from its current rate of 5.6% to above 25%, Jobless rate would move from the present 16.3% to 38%; GDP would be cut in half, from $14 trillion to $7.5 trillion, and instead of inflation at about 3.5%, deflation would cause prices to fall 15%. Housing prices would drop 25%, and world trade would fall 65%. That was the extent of economic decline that occurred during the Great Depression of 1929.

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp (FHLMC)

Freddie Mac's holds $235.1 billion in subprime mortgages.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold billions in subprime-backed securities. Freddie reported a $19 billion loss for Q1-Q2 2008. In response, the agency will raise $6 billion in new capital through the sale of preferred stock to shore up its reserves. It will also cuts its quarterly dividend in half, from 50 cents to 25 cents.  It is in trouble.

Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)

As a result of the subprime mortgage mess, Fannie Mae announced in August that it would skip a benchmark debt offering for the first time since May 2006. This is a signal that even the high-rated mortgage-backed securities offered by the agency are being rejected by the secondary market. At that time it was thought that Fannie Mae had enough cash to enable it to wait until the market improves. In, FNMA declared a $13.2 billion loss.  It is in trouble.

The US economy is in a recession, despite strong intervention by the US central bank and Treasury.

ECONOMIC CRISIS

Recent troubles in the housing and credit markets have hit it hard, with growth slowing sharply at the end of 2007. Economic forecasts suggest that the US growth in 2008 will be negative, with a deep recession in the first half of the year which will explode into a depression in 2009.

Asian markets will plunged on any steep drop on Wall Street because the U.S. economy is the place where Asian exports are sold.  When the American market cannot buy, the capitalist business in Asia go into bankruptcy. European markets also will collapse, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index, and France's CAC-40 Index being the centerpiece of the crisis.  In time, both the U.S. and Europe will move from their recessions to depressions, thus dragging down Asia.  In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, Australia's key indexes, Thailand's market, markets in China, South Korea and Taiwan.  Wars are imminent.

INFLATION

The US economy is also facing significant inflationary pressures because of record oil prices which have pushed up the price of petrol and heating oil.

While the US central bank, the Fed does not have an explicit inflation target, inflation is above 2.9% is normally enough to set off the danger signals.

UNEMPLOYMENT/JOBLESSNESS

The economic slowdown has not led to gradual rise in unemployment rate, and the economy has been losing jobs in the last few months.   People losing jobs as led to the foreclosure/repo crisis:

Lenders took possession of 2.4 million houses since July 2007 -- 321% greater than the REOs from the 2003-2007 period combined.

  • 3.8 million foreclosed single-family homes will enter the market by 2009
  • Foreclosures will account for 33% of national home sales in 2009
  • Bank repossessions (REOs) accounted for 37% of total foreclosure activity; blacks account for over 34% of those though they are less than 10 percent of the home owning population
  • Default notices increased 179% since 2007
  • The 3 highest foreclosure rates by state are Nevada (1 in every 118 households), and California (1 in every 183) Arizona's (1 out of 201) in July 2008
  • Auction notices were up 47% year over year
  • Foreclosed properties typically sell for 39% less than comparable homes
  • Foreclosed properties depress local home prices by 13%

Unemployment was already higher than it was at the end of the last boom in the l990s. There are many more jobless than are unemployed.

Men in the prime of their working lives are now less likely to have jobs than they were during all but one recession of the last 60 years. Most of them do not qualify as unemployed, but they are nonetheless without jobs. Over 50% of some Black men 21-60 are jobless in many major metropolitan areas

The unemployment rate makes it appear that only 5.6% of all workers are not working. Among men ages 25 to 54 - a range that starts after most people finish their education and ends well before most people retire - the unemployment rate is calculated as 5.6 percent.  Only people without jobs who are actively looking for work at the unemployment office qualify as unemployed in the computation of that rate. It does not count people who are not looking for work, whether or not they would like to have a job.

But there is another rate, the jobless rate - that counts the proportion of people without jobs. To be sure, some of them do not want to work. Some are raising families on a spouse's income, or are disabled, retired or independently wealthy. But others may be discouraged workers, who would take jobs if they thought any desirable positions were available.  But there are no jobs for them.

In the latest report, for July, the Labor Department reported the jobless rate - also called the "not employed rate" by some - at 14.8 percent for men in the prime age group. That rate is 32% for Black men.  Only once during a post-World War II recession did the rate ever get that high. It hit 13.3 percent in June 1982, the 12th month of the brutal 1981-82 recession, and continued to rise from there.

Employment is a lagging economic indicator, and rates higher than this have prevailed after recessions ended. There has been a long-term decline in the proportion of prime-age men with jobs. That decline has been masked by rises in the number of older people with jobs and by a steady rise in the proportion of women working outside the home. But even among women there has been some slippage.

In the last half-century, that figure has turned negative only after recessions have been going on for at least a few months, although it has often stayed negative well after the recession officially ended. The lags have ranged from four months after the start of the 1960-61 and 2001 recessions, to 15 months after the beginning of the 1973-75 downturn, with an average lag of eight months. This year, the figure turned negative in January.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

 

 

Important Economic Indicators as of Oct 1, 2008:

While the wealthy have received welfare benefits since the 1930s, this group now is the beneficiary of a modern form of capitalist socialism for the wealthy using working class tax money to fund their bailouts. Hardworking money from taxpayers is being used to keep corporations open and profiting.

  • 1. The government has nationalized an investment bank (Bear Stearns), the world's largest insurer (AIG), 50% of the country's mortgage market (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac), banks (IndyMac, Washington Mutual, etc.) and hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of bad financial assets. Even the bankruptcy of Washington Mutual---the largest bank failure in USA history---has the working class through taxes on the hook for another $35 billion.
  • 2. AIG received an $85 billion line of credit from the government and in turn, turned over 80% of its worthless stock to the government.
  • 3. The government allocated $25 billion in low-cost government loans for carmakers. They get up to 25 years to repay the loans and they can ask the Energy Department to defer repayment for up to another 5 years. Congress appropriated $7.5 billion to cover the cost of loans, including the risk of default.
  • 4. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a combined $5.4 trillion of mortgage debt, were taken over by the Federal Reserve.
  • 5. Government officials are currently working on a plan to create a taxpayer-funded entity that will buy hundreds of billions of dollars of troubled mortgages from banks.
  • 6. The Treasury will begin to insure money-market funds, print money, give the money to the feds to give to the richest.
  • 7. the governement will continue to cut taxes for the riches.

Inflation

CPI increased by 65% since January 2008, with oil prices rising to $148.00 per barrel then fell to $108 after rising $25.00 in one day. Forcing up air travel prices, gasoline prices, heat fuel prices, etc.  Gas is now $5.20 in some metro areas in the South.

Black Inner City Unemployment

White unemployment is 6.3; Black unemployment is 18.9 % as of October 2008; Black inner city unemployment approaches 31.4% in the ten 1,000,000+ populated cities with the largest African American populations.

Real GDP

Negative rate, decrease for the third quarter of 2008

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve bailed out Bear Stearn at $30bn with a front fire sale from JP Morgan at $2 per share on a company that had traded last year at $178.00 per share; then opened discount loan window for capitalist banks in trouble at $260bn taxpayer monies.  They bought Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac for over $200 billion; AIG for over $85 billion; they gave $25 billion to the Auto Industry; they are giving over $700 billion to bail out the rich capitalists on Wall street---$1.3 trillion (1,300,000,000,000) of worker's tax money to the rich.  They passed a $160 billion Iraq war spending bill and a $267 billion bill to give handouts to capitalist large farmers.


Economic Indicator

Statistical Value

Last Updated

Real GDP

11523.6 billion (-3.2% annual rate) Quarter 3, 2008

09/29/2008

Nominal GDP

14084.1 billion (1.2% annual rate) Quarter 1, 2008

09/29/2008

Black Inner city Unemployment Rate

31.4% for 9/30/2008

09/29/2008

Total National Debt

26.33 trillion (deficit) period ending Sept. 2008)

09/29/2008

Federal Budget

$458.56 billion (deficit) for FY 2007 + first five months of 2008.  Add the $700 billion bail out of Wall Street, the $85 billion to AIG, the $250 Billion to bail of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the $25 billion to the Auto Industry.  Another $271 billion to bail out the capitalist farmers; the $260 the Federal Reserve has set aside and the $30 billion they used to save Bear Stearns and the total could rise to over $1.893 trillion in deficit.

09/30/2008

Public Debt

$12,276.0 billion (12 trillion deficit). The US does not even include the war in Iraq or Afghanistan in its budget.

09/30/2008

Federal Funds Rate

2.31% for 05/16/2008

09/29/2008

30 Year Treasury Bond

4.21% for 05/09/2008

09/28/2008

Percent Black Foreclosures

31% of total---though only 13.2% of national population

09/27/2008

Percent Black car Repossessions

35% of total

09/27/2008

Balance of Trade

-72314.76 Millions of dollars 8/31/2008 ($72 billion deficit)

09/28/2008

Canadian Dollar

$1 US= $0.9241 Canadian

09/28/2008

Japanese Yen

$1 US = 96.14 Yen

08/26/2008

Mexican Peso

$1 US = 13.234 Pesos

08/30/2008

EU Euro

$1 US = 0.621 Euros

09/30/2008

BUDGET DEFICIT

The US Treasury has begun paying out over $160bn in tax rebates to help boost economic growth.

But the package will double the size of the US deficit, which will also be hit by the economic downturn.

In the longer term, costs will rise as more people claim social security and Medicare payments as the Baby Boomer generation reaches retirement.

COLLAPSING HOUSE PRICES

At the root of the problems in the US economy is the collapse of the housing market as foreclosed properties and unsold new build homes flood the market.

Nationwide, US house prices are dropping for the first time since the Great Depression, and the rate of contraction is still accelerating.

And with people unable to borrow more against the value of their homes, it also has an impact on the real economy.

US consumer crisis deepens in July 2008

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 39.4, the lowest level since February 1970.

Confidence is down with the economy being hit by both a property slump and rising prices for food and fuel.

The Conference Board's survey is closely watched because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds or 68% of US economic activity.

Economic worry

Look at gasoline prices and home values.

  • Meanwhile, the future remains bleak according to the Conference Board.
  • The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to get worse over the next six months jumped to 61.1% from 36.2% the previous month.
  • And the percentage of those expecting fewer jobs to be created in the months ahead rose to 60.5% from 34.1%.
  • The confidence index, which is based on responses from 5,000 US households, has fallen steadily over the past year and stood at 111.9 last July.
  • The Conference Board's director of consumer research believes the economy could be stuck for some time.
  • Looking ahead, consumers' economic outlook is so bleak that the (Conference Board's) Expectations Index has reached a new all-time low.
  • But the US Federal Reserve has signaled it has shifted its focus from recession fears to worries about the impact of inflation on the economy.
  • Federal Reserve policy makers, who begin a two-day interest rate meeting later on Tuesday, are expected to leave the cost of borrowing at 2%.

US producer prices up 2.3% in June 2008; gas climbed 6.9% in July.

US producer prices jumped by more than expected in May, pushed higher by the soaring fuel and food prices that are hurting economies around the world.

Prices climbed by 1.4% - the biggest gain since November 2007, according to US Labor Department statistics.

Further evidence of the strain on the US economy came from separate government numbers showing a 12.9% fall in new home construction during June.

The housing market has collapsed over the past year, weighing on economic growth, in addition, higher consumer prices driven by oil prices setting new record highs of almost $150 a barrel.

Oil pressures and Cost worries

The data showed that producer prices were now 11.3% higher than they were a year ago. This was the ninth consecutive month that prices had risen by more than 8% on an annual basis.

The new figures add to worries that producers will soon be forced to raise prices to limit the impact of spiraling fuel and food prices. But firms can only pass on so much to the consumer before having a negative impact on company profits. You will see companies trying to [increase prices] in the coming months. If they are unsuccessful, they will probably have to eat the higher costs.

US unemployment rate reaches 5.5% and the national jobless rate is 16.6%; Black national unemployment is around 14.2% and the Black jobless rate is over 31% in the largest standard metropolitan areas.

  • The US unemployment rate rose at its fastest pace in more than two decades in May/June, stoking fears of recession in the world's biggest economy.
  • It shows US companies are more reluctant to hire as profits are squeezed by a consumer slowdown and soaring oil and raw material costs.
  • The poor data rattled the stock market, with the blue-chip Dow Jones index sliding 1.79%, or 225.70 points, to 12378.75 in afternoon trade in New York.

Cost of living

Fuel costs push up US inflation

US inflation rose at its fastest pace for six months in July because of sharply higher energy costs.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is poised to cut interest rates again, while the first payments in $100bn (£50bn) in tax rebates are being sent this week to help revive the US economy. But have they done enough to avoid a recession?

The extent of intervention in the US economy since the credit crunch began in August has been both swift and unprecedented.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has been particularly aggressive in cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 2.25%.

The US government moved quickly during the winter to pass an emergency stimulus package, with cash rebates to individuals and tax breaks for businesses.

The US economy has expanded for the last six months at annual rate of just 0.6%.

The Fed has also lent billions of dollars to the banking sector to avoid a financial meltdown, including $29bn in government guarantees to keep investment bank Bear Stearns from collapsing.

Financial pain

There is no doubt that the Fed's actions have reduced the chances of a financial meltdown.

They have allowed all the major financial institutions - which include investment as well as commercial banks - to borrow from a $100bn short-term fund set up to by the Fed.

This has eased their short-term liquidity problems, but it is not clear that we have reached the end of the write-offs from sub-prime and other credit losses.

So far, only around $250bn of the $1 trillion in credit losses estimated by the IMF has been announced.

Housing slump

The greater risk aversion of the banks is shown by the fact that 30-year mortgage rates have not moved down in line with the Fed funds, and are still over 6%, despite the very sharp rate cuts.

This means mortgage lending is now more profitable for banks, and that people in negative equity will find it more difficult to borrow.

The slump in housing values is beginning to affect not just sub-prime borrowers, but prime mortgage holders too.

The closely watched Case Schiller house price index for the 20 major metropolitan areas is now falling at an annual rate of 12.7%, and that rate is accelerating.

Mark Zandi, of Moodys.com, estimates that a 20% drop will put millions of homeowners into negative equity.

The overhang of new construction, with 11 months inventory of unsold homes, makes it difficult to see any recovery in house prices in the near term.

The housing slump is hitting hardest the areas where population and house prices are growing the fastest, such as southern Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and southern California.

But there has been little agreement in Congress as to how much relief to give to homeowners whose properties are now being repossessed in increasing numbers.

The main thrust has been to try and get mortgage lenders to make voluntary arrangements with creditors to delay repossessions, with only limited success.

Recession 

The housing slump directly impacts on the real economy because of the "wealth effect" - people are more prepared to borrow if they believe they have become richer as a result of the rise in house prices.

Now that prices are falling, equity withdrawal through refinancing mortgages is no longer possible, and that is likely to counteract the effects of the temporary tax rebates.

This raises questions about how effective the $100bn stimulus - about 1% of the US economy, and 2% of disposable consumer income - will be?

In 2001, consumers spent about 20% to 40% of the tax rebates within three months of receiving them, and 60% within six months.

Consumer confidence is at a record low, and borrowing much higher, so many people may choose to repay debt rather than spend.

In addition, the effect of high oil prices on the price of petrol - which has reached record levels - may add about $35bn to consumer costs this quarter, wiping out one-third of the rebate.

Two out of the three main candidates for the presidency are calling for a temporary abolition of Federal petrol taxes over the summer to help ease this burden -

Inflationary pressures

While both fiscal and monetary policy are providing only limited help for the US economy, there is not much scope for further action on either front.

The fiscal stimulus package doubled the size of the US government's budget deficit, just as the economic slowdown is likely to reduce tax revenues.

And while the Fed rate cuts have lost some of their impact on the real economy, base rates are already at or below the rate of inflation.

With both oil and food prices still spiraling across the world, the Fed will have to move cautiously from now on to limit inflationary expectations and prevent further speculation in the commodity markets.

Declining wages

During the seven years from 2000 to 2006, the US economy grew in size from $9.8 trillion to $12.8 trillion, an increase in real terms of 18%.

  • Productivity - the measure of the output of the economy per worker employed - grew even more strongly, by 16.6%.
  • But over the same period, the median family's income slid by 4.7%, in contrast to the 11.3% gain registered in the second half of the 1990s.
  • The wages of households of African or Hispanic origin fell even faster.
  • And new entrants to the labor market fared particularly badly.
  • Average hourly real wages for both college and high school graduates actually fell between 2000 and 2007, and fewer of the jobs they found carried benefits such as health care or company pensions.

ANALYSIS

Unemployment, Foreclosure, Eviction, Obsolescence, Social Upheaval

Today, computer automated machine production is ending wage labor, forcing mass layoffs, plant closings, buyouts, forced retirements, and firings of wage and salary workers of all colors.; mechanical labor is being thrown down to the level of manual labor and manual labor is being pushed out into the streets, homeless.  Wealth will rapidly accumulate on one pole and poverty on the other.  Class, race, culture, gender, and generation will pose, oppose, and compose as the polarize into warring/antagonistic opposites.  Rebellion will break out and be put down.  Martial law, paved by the Patriot Act, is a foregone conclusion.

Foreclosures, repossessions, cuts in health-care, cuts in childcare, cuts in welfare, cuts in food programs, increased gas prices, increased utilities prices, increased unemployment---all of these directly harm Black women the most because they head over 70% of Black families.  When a child is sick, in most Black families, the mother must find a way to get them well. 

When a family is evicted, it is usually the Black woman who as to find some way for the children to have a roof over their head, clothes on their backs, food in their stomachs and a school to got to.  When it is parent-teacher day in over 90% of the cases women are there with their children.  The Black father is usually nowhere to be found.  When a child needs home work help it is usually the mother that helps, or puts them into an after school program that helps them improve.  We all must appreciate the weight of this situation given that the economic system is about to collapse.  Every condition of life will get that much harder to live.

As whole categories of work are replaced by robotics organized around computers, it is shaping the world economy around CAMP, mobile capital, cheap labor, debt, and speculation.  The capitalist class accumulates wealth on the basis of the globalized cheapened labor of the world's people mainly in Asia, speculates on and profits from debt in their global stock markets, profits from manipulating the world's currencies, and privatizes every public asset and function possible---even the military. 

The capitalist class has declared war on anyone who is not profitable to them---but they will defend their race/culture first in relative form.  The whites will be last to feel the brunt of this emerging depression.  Even though they are now laying off millions of white people too, this is still a white, male, Greco-roman, capitalist class whose image and interests depends on the defenses of the blond-haired, blue eyed ultra-white nationalist-thinking/acting core of the European population.  The Black populations of the world are already suffering the worst relative to the rest of the world; they will suffer even more in this period as the conditions intensify.

Capitalist are in charge, just as the feudalist kings, and slave masters were before them.  Technology displaces workers, making labor cheap, forcing them into foreclosure, evictions, repossessions, unemployment, and broken families.  The immense surplus value circulating globally is produced off the backs of a smaller and smaller percentage of workers, most of them people of color, who are unable to purchase the commodities they produce because they are paid wages that keep them and their families living in poverty.

Three fourth of African children around the world live in utter poverty; some 1.4 billion Black skin people.  Most Black people in Africa live on less than $1.30 per day. In addition, electronic technology replaces workers in production. With fewer and fewer workers earning sufficient income to allow them to purchase commodities, the economic foundations of the capitalist system are collapsing.

Debt is collapsing. At the basis of foreclosures, and car repossessions are the inability of the masses of workers to pay their bills off of the wage/salary they now have been reduced to.  In the United States alone over 1.3 million families are in foreclosure.  Credit makes up the difference between what is earned and what is needed. This includes federal, state, and local governments as well as individuals.

Financial speculation is growing. Speculative capitalists and their stock markets re energized by debt speculation because there is money to be made in gambling on companies, loans, stocks and bonds.  Credit, consumer debt, corporate debt, national debt, international debt combined temporarily prop up the economy on a weak foundation.

As the value of labor power in competition with roboticised machines continues toward zero, every advance of speculative capital or debt expand the difference between wealth and poverty both in the United States and the world.

Things to Come

Advances in robotic technology and their application to (use in) the production of food, clothing, shelter, transportation, health care, manufacturing, construction, mining, and other societal services is ending wage labor, permanently unemploying factory workers, and sending millions to the street---unemployed, homeless, hungry, sick, confused, angry, and in line for some type of state action which ultimately leads to prison, hospital or homicide.  Computer automated machine production (CAMP) is ending wage labor, while globalization establishes the world's lowest possible wage as the standard for workers around the world.

First stage of robotized production   Robots are replacing people in production, which in its essence was organized mainly for manpower and machines.    Cheap labor still can compete with robots, so robotized factories coexist along with unrobotized or partially robotized factories.    Production still needs the services of work­ing people, so far as it didn't eliminate them com­pletely.    More and more robots conquer the different spheres of industry, and for this reason expansion of production does not supply enough jobs for workers who have lost them to robots.    As a result, the number of unemployed people is growing.   

The second stage of robotized production   

New factories are designed for using robots only, without any participation of human beings.    The speed of assembly lines, which before was limited by human abilities, will be much faster.    The technologies of producing goods will adapt completely to the capacities of robots.    Productivity at this stage will increase to such a degree that even the cheapest labor cannot compete with fully automated and robot­ized factories.    All spheres of industry will become robotized, including the service sector.    Robots will become an integral part of our daily life like tele­phones, cars, personal computers, etc.    Under these conditions a man will be squeezed out of production faster than before.    The army of unemployed people will grow at a rate of 9-15% each year.      

As CAMP extends throughout the global economy, workers around the world compete with each other and with computerized robots.  The least skilled lose every time.  This global process slashes the cost of production to the absolute minimum, drives down the value of human labor and wages and forces more members of the household to enter the job market, work past retirement age, or take on multiple jobs to maintain a slipping standard of living.  Then their retirement benefits and health benefits are cut or taken from them completely.  When people don't work, they cannot pay for the goods and services. 

When they don't work the tax base shrinks, government services are cutout, schools are cut and closed, health care programs are severed, hospitals are closed, training programs are ended, children are warehoused in overcrowded schools and prisons.  Without the ability to sell their labor power, no wage or salary, and with no economic safeguards or political voice, the disposed must fight openly (in the streets)  on questions of necessity, such as food, clothing, shelter, education for their children, health care, transportation, and protection against the emerging nazi police state. 

Each stage in the development of roboticized compoter technology is administered by a specific race, class, gender, culture, and generation (RCGCG).  In modern US history (1492-1865), necessity drove a group of white royalty-paid-pillagers out of Europe and around the world to seize from other places what they could not produce  when their feudal economic system was in decay.  Their ruling classes, race, and male gender fundamentally built nations out of stolen land and the kidnapped labor of tens of millions of Africans.  Industrial innovations were made and applied in emerging agricultural sectors that promoted their ability and expanded their capacity to carry out more pillaging, kidnapping, theft, and working to death of hundreds of millions of nonwhites worldwide. 

Hundreds of years passed with millions of innocents being mutilated, brutalized, and worked to death build white slave, feudal, and capitalist societies around the world.  As a result of these bloody, global invasions and indescribable destruction of human life, profits soared for the class of western, white, wealthy men who (1) organized a process of production reflective of their image and interests; (2) created and fulfilled market demands through hemispheric systems of consumption and distribution; (3) established a basis and standard of exchange (gold/silver/tobacco/paper money); (4) and put into place institutions and white supremacy, Aryan Model" ideology to promote the reproduction of their class and race.  In sum, the accelerated forward advance of white civilization took place essentially because of the accelerated regression of African land, labor, and natural resources. 

Today, the impact of technological change also has definite race, class, gender, culture and generation implications.  The same ruling class that owns the means of production and fervently pursues ways to cheapen production, also organizes institutions of health, education, welfare, law, politics, recreation, military, religion, and criminal justice according to a stratification system that favors members of its race, class, gender, and culture.  Ford, GM, Chrysler, FedEx, Dell, HP etc., know that robots are 10-15 times more productive and profitable than humans.  Mass layoffs are therefore inevitable, and discriminating. 

Blacks are first to be sent to the streets, permanently, but all unprofitable workers will ultimately get pink slips.  There won't be solid, sustained race (black/white) unity against a whit ruling class.  US white workers and their middle classes have been historically bought off in the form of white supremacy-privilege, better wages, better jobs-and as a result, better food, clothing, shelter, education, health care, recreation, culture, transportation, luxuries, etc.-which means that they will do what is politically, socially, and economically necessary to secure the few remaining jobs, including eliminating affirmative action in education and employment; helping to close Black institutions of education and training while helping to keep their own open; creating new (mostly low-paying service) jobs in largely white communities; and directing tax revenues to white capitalists through contracts and kickbacks. The result in African communities is increasing unemployment, cutbacks in jobs and services, and the end of affirmative action, which bring about further lay offs, service reductions, and closures---especially schools.  

The ruling ideas of a society are the ideas of the ruling class, race, sex, and culture. The state form is determined by the needs of the ruling class and its ability to reorganize society in accordance with its needs.  The ruling RCGCG uses the state apparatus to organize its affairs and to impose its will.   Any change in the form or function of the state machine undertaken by the ruling RCGCG is made in accordance with its changing needs and always with reference to strengthening and extending its position of rule. 

Economic collapse opens the curtains on the historical stage for these groups to galvanize the masses around addressing what they deem the fundamental threats to their existence. 

Incremental shift in super structural institutions reflect changes in production relations. To serve its interests as long as possible, the ruling group takes public money from social programs to finance its causes, starting and fighting wars (trillions of dollars); useless space programs to selected contractors (hundreds of billions of dollars); Retrenchments of spending in education, health care, and safety net programs occur, first in the geographic areas and economic spheres dominated by of African Americans and then only gradually among other people. 

Economic crisis leads to the dismantling of protections to workers in the form of labor unions and affirmative action policies and programs; the defending of higher education, closing down schools, clinics, hospitals, community centers, job training programs and liberal/progressive organizations through local, state, and federal policy changes; intensification of secrecy/spying campaigns; the termination of basic services to which the African American contributes. 

Such deterioration in quality of life angers those who know that they deserve more; who know that their lives are worth more.  Neo-Nazi groups vie for the hearts, minds, and hands of disaffected whites with a plan, promises of a great and noble future, and determination to ensure victory. 

The result: an economic crisis that can't be solved if policy makers try to use the methods of the old economic policy, the essence of which is to stimulate the private sector by reducing taxes on capital, by reducing the interest on money borrowed from the Federal Reserve, in short, by creating favorable economic conditions for capital to function. This economic policy will fail, because    the main reason for the crisis is absence of a solvent market in the face of high unemployment, consisting of workers who    never will be engaged in production, and    never will restore the market for goods of mass consumption.    The old means of treating an economic crisis by stimulation of business, which in turn enhances market solvency by attracting more and more unemployed people into pro­duction, will no longer produce their magic, because robots will forever eliminate workers from production.   

The existence of the global market only postpones the eco­nomic crisis in a given country, because capital increases export of its goods abroad for realization of profits when the solvency of the domestic market diminishes.    This process will proceed until the robotization of production in underdeveloped countries reaches the same level as it has in developed capitalist countries.    International competition will force them sooner or later to implement robotization.  

 When cheap labor no longer can compete with unmanned factories producing the same product, underdeveloped countries will be compelled to implement robotized production, and they will feel the same consequences that developed countries experience   Under these conditions the global market will exhaust itself as the valve that eliminated economic pressure on the domestic market.    In its social aspect, unemployment resulting from the robotization of production means a violation of the balance between the interests of rich and poor, the preservation of which is the major function of any class-based state.   

Under these condi­tions it is most likely that the patience of working people left without work will be exhausted and they will begin to demand jobs and fair distribution of wealth.   Unemployment delegitimizes governments and is a time bomb   This situation never has existed in a capitalistic society, and so there are no rules on how to solve these problems, which are very serious both economically and socially.    Such is the prognosis for the development of unmanned production under existing economic policy of the capitalist state. In the next chapter we will show the solution to this problem.      Solution of the Unemployment Problem Under Robotization of Capitalist Production  

The group that seizes power from economic collapse reorganizes society in its image and interests.  The whites stole this land and through a will to not be defeated, murderously seized control from coast to coast.  They dragged African women, men, and children half-way around the world to be worked to death so that they could live.  As owners of the means of production, the economic, political, and social system evolved to reflect their race, class, gender, generation, culture, and psychological image and interests.  The white, wealthy, western, judea-christian, aggressive group organized around a new set of industrial productive forces, defeated the backward southern whites and forged economic, political and social systems in their image and interests. 

An economic collapse precipitated by the present scientific and technological revolution (STR) promises a more intense decay than the prior change of hands, within which a bloody war will be fought over the next white group's to rule.  Presently, the serious contenders, i.e., the most prepared,  include the emerging group of reactionary neo-nazi whites, organized around an obsolete means of production versus the present reactionary conservative white ruling group attempting to hold onto a sinking ship; the bulk of whom will ultimately unite against all social and racial (primarily African Americans) undesirables. 

With the hunting of black skins being raised again to the level of an art form by whites, Africans must defend against the worst assault  since the period of capture, kidnapping and exile to North America.

          The emerging African Liberation Movement in American and throughout the world is being brought back to life by Black Nationalism, Pan Africanism, and the African Cultural Revolution (centered around ancient KMT civilization).  In the 1990's, Africans are feeling race pride.  This is not enough. 

          In order to survive in America, and contribute to the African Liberation Movement, Africans need the accumulated political, economic, cultural and social knowledge of world civilization.  Even with this knowledge,  Africans go begging to whites for food, clothing, shelter, health care, education, language, transportation, and money because whites own everything from production, distribution, exchange, to consumption.  Whites own every major industry.  Africans in America live in a white society, with a white supreme court, a white senate, a white president, a white house of representatives, a white religion, a white language, white sports, white clothes and dress codes, white buildings, white schools, white culture---white everything.  Every institution is an institution made by white people in the image, interest, and direct benefit of white people.  In such a hostile environment, Africans have only attempted to survive.  Today, even survival is threatened. 

          With the emerging murderous white militia movement, the Aryan race movement, and the mass Conservative movement, the annihilation of the African race in the United States is certain if revolutionary preparation is not taken.   This period is unlike in the history of white black relationships.  Whites, with advanced computer automated technology and a collapsing economy do not need African slaves to labor.  The white Nazi movement has denitrified Africans as the cause of the collapsing white economy...  These murderers are preparing daily in militias for the Final Solution to the African Problem.  In the past, the difficult reformist struggles for partial demands of an end to slavery, an end to segregation,  voting rights, etc., and the winning of token concessions such as affirmative action were only petty skirmishes, petty encounters on the outpost, whereas the decisive engagement is still to come. 

          African purposes in life must be higher than temporary survival in this decadent white society.  African lives are worth more than this.  The goal, the outcome, the purpose of our lives must not continue to be a life long exercise in helping whites to build their societies and civilization.  It is time to do for Africans.  It is time to place the same value in rebuilding African civilization in Africa that we place in building white civilization for whites.  Africans must not organize just to buy time in a 2700 year old white genocidal process which has reduced the race to the level of lowest animals in the world. 

African workers must not suit up in this emerging race and class war merely to bargain for more time to dig graves for their children in America.  What should an African in the United States, or any place in the world care about communism, if whites slaughter the majority of people of African descent to arrive at white communism that again benefits whites?  The period of regreeeion is first.  It will not be a class war but first a culture and race scapegoating of the nonwhite population as the source of the nations's ills.  Rememeber Black reconstruction.  Remmeber nazi germany.  Our problem is bigger than socialism, or communism for whites.  Our goal is higher than living in yet another white society that benefits whites.

          Africans, subjugated on the basis of color and class surtax, must forever remember what whites have done to us---and what, daily, they practice to do.  Accordingly, African workers must organize not only a necessary immigration apparatus and outlet, but they must also develop a federation of their organizations which will prepare them to apply certain historical fundamentals of survival in a period more potentially murderous than Nazi Germany.  Survival and self defense in American, therefore, can only be a temporary immediate aim.  

          The solution to the 2700 problem for Africans is not simply a question that can be resolved by dispensing with capitalism, or socialism.  This historical process of the African renaissance---rebirth, reconstruction---is much more significant to the total liberation of Africans than class and race struggle with whites.  The redemption, resurrection and revolution of the African race/civilization within this lifetime are the only solution.

          Our struggle is much bigger than surviving the collapse of this white society.  We are in the midst of a greater war; (1) we must feed, clothe, educate, defend, and shelter ourselves while we are in America; (2) we must develop a disciplined systematic mobilization-migration apparatus for the mass transportation of Africans back to Africa; (3) we must disperse in Africa, rebuilding and preparing for the battles to come with whites, (4) the remerging of the African Diaspora with Africans on the continent must be systematically organized and efficiently practiced; (5) the reconstruction of African civilization must then begin the bottom upside., economic, technological, military, cultural, political, social, etc.

          To create a new African society, and to unearth and reconstruct ancient African civilization and culture, survival methods are not enough.  Africans in America will never build an African civilization in America on top of the filthy white society, and the bleached bones and crumbed wreckages of the indigenous Chechimecan culture.  

To complete the cycle of capture, kidnapping, mass transportation to this foreign soil, the mass working to death of hundreds of millions building white nations around the world must be completed.  Africans must liberate themselves, break the teeth of the beast, the grip of the murderers, mobilize, and mass transport back to Africa and spend the rest of their lives rebuilding African civilization and the African race.  Africans must leave. 

To build a new African form of society in a period of Scientific and Technological Revolution (STR), Africans need a higher conception of social development.  Africans need a higher appreciation, respect for, and understanding of African culture and ancient civilization before white invasions and pillage destroyed them.

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